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Who's first? [Oct. 2nd, 2005|12:19 am]
Just me.
So I was watching the Daily Show DVD, which is coverage of the 2004 Presidential election. And I was thinking, how long will it we before we elect a President in the US who isn't a white guy of a Protestant demonination? I know we've had a Catholic president and a bachelor president, but eventually someone who breaks the pattern will be elected. Long Bet time: Predict it.

And this poll is for first to get ELECTED president, not the first to BECOME president by being a vice president and succeeding the elected president.


Poll #581522 Long bets- first superlative US president:

Which of the following do you think will be elected FIRST in the USA?

Female President
10(30.3%)
Black President
8(24.2%)
Asian President
0(0.0%)
Hispanic President
7(21.2%)
Native American/Indian President
0(0.0%)
Jewish President
4(12.1%)
Muslim President
0(0.0%)
Mormon President
0(0.0%)
Scientologist President
2(6.1%)
Declared Atheist/agnostic/non religious President
0(0.0%)
Gay President (out, not speculatively gay)
0(0.0%)
A two-fer, such as "black woman" or "gay scientologist"
2(6.1%)



Extra credit: predict "who" and "when" in a comment.

Note to das_prompt : "First Juggalo President" is not an acceptable write-in.
linkReply

Comments:
[User Picture]From: rwx
2005-10-02 07:32 am (UTC)
I'm betting on Barack Obama, '08 or '12.
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[User Picture]From: lara7
2005-10-02 07:54 am (UTC)

most likely candidate:

Yep, I think Obama is the only ELECTABLE black guy on the radar right now, as all the other recent black candidates to ever express interest in the office (Sharpton, Jesse Jackson, Mosley-Braun, and Alan Keyes) seem unlikely to get the nomination unless the only other choice is "a ham sandwich".

(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)
[User Picture]From: mad_eponine
2005-10-03 06:39 pm (UTC)

Re: most likely candidate:

Unfortunately, this is politics and this is America... and America is filled with Americans. Obama has the unfortunate timbre of his name, which sounds decidedly non-American and unelectably (at least for the near future) rhymes with Osama. Look no further than Mr. Obama's state of Illinois, where, in 1986, Janice Hart, a LaRouchie, defeated venerable Aurelia Pucinski partially, the speculation goes, on name.

In any case, a primary run in 2008 would be a good testing of the waters for Obama. And I know Clinton's been itching to run since 2000, which she should do, and I fully expect to see her toss her hat in. And since Democrats (the male Clinton excepted) can't run a campaign to save their lives, maybe the Republicans can help them again by slating a boring Candidate Dole-like person.
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[User Picture]From: shoutingboy
2005-10-02 07:47 am (UTC)

Condi! Condi! Condi!

As veep first, in '08, then president.

Possibly with some time off in between for some much-needed (and highly artistic) lesbian pornography.
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[User Picture]From: lara7
2005-10-02 07:55 am (UTC)

Re: Condi! Condi! Condi!

I was thinking Oprah, but Condi also seems a plausible future candidate.

(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)
[User Picture]From: rimrunner
2005-10-02 03:52 pm (UTC)

Re: Condi! Condi! Condi!

Yeah, I'd put some money on Condi, too. Although Obama also looks viable, depending on what he does over the next few years.
(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)
[User Picture]From: lara7
2005-10-02 08:37 pm (UTC)

although...

Condi would need to get married first. I know we've had a bachelor president at some point in the early 20th century, but an unmarried career-gal female president is probably too weird for most voters.
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[User Picture]From: mad_eponine
2005-10-03 06:57 pm (UTC)

Re: Condi! Condi! Condi!

I've been vacillating on the black or female question (as it pertains to this poll). One bit of sociology that can't be overlooked is the military issue: who are Americans, and the military specifically, more likely to accept as their Commander-in-Chief? The Elder Bush played this card pointedly against Geraldine Ferraro in a 1984 VP debate. The military, especially as it relates to foreign policy, is a huge issue and people have all sorts of pre-concieved and ill-informed notions of women commanders.

On this one issue, though, the hypothetical question of Condi vs Obama is infinitely fascinating since their political ideologies run counter to sex stereotypes.
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[User Picture]From: lara7
2005-10-03 11:19 pm (UTC)

Re: Condi! Condi! Condi!

Yeah, black or white, male or female, Condi has a few strikes against her:

1) no military experience (but then, how many women in politics do?)
2) not married (Obama is, though, I think)
3) has a Phd from a hoity toity West-coast private school. American voters are suspicious of "eggheads".

also, there's still 2 years left of the Bush administration, and the way things have gone lately, being a Bush loyalist may distance moderate republicans by the time the primaries roll around.

I'd say the nomination looks far better for an "outsider" republican like Mccain than it does for current Cabinet members.

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[User Picture]From: jtemperance
2005-10-02 08:17 am (UTC)
Edward James Olmos, 2016.
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[User Picture]From: dirtylibrarian
2005-10-02 02:17 pm (UTC)
I think Hillary has a good shot...we have a friend of the family who over the years flipped into a big Republican, and he voted for Kerry because he thought W getting re-elected gave Hillary the best odds in 2008. That level of paranoia makes me think it just might happen.

But I also think if Oprah wanted it, she could get it no problem. Didn't see no W in the Superdome!
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[User Picture]From: lemur68
2005-10-02 02:35 pm (UTC)
Yeah, one of last year's righty talking points was that Bill Clinton was only half-assedly supporting Kerry because a Kerry win would push Hillary's candidacy back to '16.
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[User Picture]From: dougo
2005-10-02 02:18 pm (UTC)
Matt Santos!
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[User Picture]From: das_prompt
2005-10-02 03:00 pm (UTC)
"First Juggalo President" is not an acceptable write-in.

I don't think a write-in is needed. If I recall correctly, Hillary's street name is "Violent H".
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[User Picture]From: li_kao
2005-10-02 03:17 pm (UTC)
"First Juggalo President" is not an acceptable write-in.

And yet you give an option for a muslim president?

Step away from the crack.
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[User Picture]From: lara7
2005-10-02 08:32 pm (UTC)

you never know:

Arab-Americans might yet become a political force, and I'm sure there are voters that would choose a Muslim before a gay president. Seems unlikely, and I think a black, hispanic or female prez is the most likely "first" anyway.

Notice I left off "Black Muslim" (aka Nation of Islam, the Farrakan followers)- that was too ludicrious even after "Scientologist" or "gay".
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[User Picture]From: lemur68
2005-10-02 03:21 pm (UTC)
and Willie 2 Dope
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[User Picture]From: lara7
2005-10-03 11:13 pm (UTC)

"the hatchet is FAMILY"

Delay=The Hammer... Hillary= The Hatchet?
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[User Picture]From: palecur
2005-10-03 02:03 am (UTC)
Two-fer: Minority female. When: 2016. 2024 at the outside.
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